Charlie Pedersen
wexinfinity@gmail.com
186132.myauthorsite.com
Political Rhetoric 2012

Political Rhetoric versus real change 2012

Political rhetoric is back in season due to the 2012 elections, but the real issues of change are simply not addressed, with a few notable exceptions. 

What should be discussed by focused candidates and the media? Quite frankly, the flag waving, religious, patriotism questioning, capitalism versus socialism, I know business, dumbed-down , racially overtoned,  self righteousness speak is getting old.. That's so 2008. There are issues that identify who should be the leaders and problem solvers. . "Social agendas" are used by politicians to avoid the substance of  real issues. Like:

1. When are we going to address the Water and Energy (WE) problem,
domestically and worldwide? Our goals and actions need to be clear. Supply has to exceed demand (sed) with a competing mix of "gas"(eous), clean liquid, and electric fuels supported by a distribution system that assures "refuel-ability". Infrastructure investment must be focused on encouraging: distribution diversity at convenient refill outlets; R&D on boosting battery capacity by five(5) to ten(10) times; pure bio-fuels and mixing renewable-fuels with petrol in increasing percentages; developing more efficient internal combustion engines(ice), including "gas" powered and biodiesel; hybrids; and pure electric motors.. Short term boosts in "drilling" are O.K., but without a commitment to make supply of clean energy exceed demand (sed), claims of increasing energy independence and lowering fuel costs are energy materials from cows. We need the "bs" as part of an energy supply, not from the mouths of our politicians.This is a national priority.

 The world's energy consumption is going to double by 2050 and triple by 2100. The emerging nations (China, India, Brazil, etc.) are growing while the mature economies (USA,EU, Japan, etc.) are crawling. Why? The cost of fuel. Energy dependence is a drag on  developed nations and is part of the mainstream while emerging nations are still producing infrastructure, and while still expensive, the cost is offset by low labor costs.. In the 1950's, public roads were needed to support automobiles and stimulate commerce. But from 1950-1973 oil remained in the low $20/barre range, This isn't a supply side theory, it's driven by the need to assure competition for low cost clean energy and water in a world where supply has been rationed out and prices manipulated by companies and governments controlling supply.for almost forty (40) years. The suppliers are determined to find the sweet spot where customers can tolerate the high cost. (i.e. get used to it). Cartel/oligopoly control is the anti-thesis of suppliers doing everything possible to provide the best product at the lowest cost, pure invisible hand. What we have is visible and invisible handshakes between suppliers and governments which often is the same thing. In related ways, the innovation in the "industrial economies" is not as robust as the 1980's and 1990's. Yes wireless is flying, but it is not enough. Apple has almost 50,000 employees in the USA, but estimates are , worldwide, 500,000-1,000,000 subcontractors.  This isn't wrong, per se, because in a global economy, you must often trade manufacturing for access to markets as well as low manufacturing costs, of course. You may not like it, but would you rather have Nokia (Finland) leading the markets? Welcome to the global economy. The point is that innovation must span many industries to have the effect needed in this economyIt won't happen without large supplies of clean. low cost Water and Energy.

 

Advertisements about natgas by the oil companies clearly are targeted at home energy, "i.e." gas versus coal. We need a mobile energy strategy including natgas as a bridge to hydrogen competing with electric, bio-fuel, and more efficient "ice"s. But the key to low cost and efficiency is sed, scale level volume, and an integrated WE (Water and Energy) action plan.


The coop, feed , water and delivery methods are needed  before the chicken or the egg. (coop, not co-op) The USA has electric and gas distribution as well as liquid fuel depots as a base for change. Pakistan, the country the U.S. provides billions in aid to, already has 2,000,000 cars running on natural gas.Why? Pure price/performance in an emerging infrastructure.  In Brazil,85% bio-fuel cars are on the road while they export increasing amounts of oil..Why, plenty of sugar cane and foreign markets willing to pay for high priced oil. 

Free markets, but supported by a tri-fecta (gas, clean liquid, electric) of distribution incentives and aggressive efficiency goals 80-100+++ mpg equivalents are needed. Oil sands in Canada are not the answer for U.S. jobs. A distribution infrastructure needs to be established immediately and be designed to evolve. Natgas is a bridge fuel, part of the equation to allow a transition to competitive clean gaseous energy, probably hydrogen.. WE can't and shouldn't wait for a single ultimate fuel because competition will drive costs down, especially petroleum. WE need the foresight to not raise the price of petroleum, but drive it down while opening the distribution system to diversity. We need a distribution network that encourages small and large diverse clean energy suppliers. There is room for bio-diversity, electric, and gaseous at the spoke (refueling stations) at the home, workplace, retail location, and refueling depots. Models for snap-in swappable battery arrays are already being prototyped. At the hubs, energy collection points, including homes, farms, businesses, and larger scale fuel generators,  diversity is important including gaseous ;  renew ables like bio-, wind, solar, thermal, sea/water;  and yes, safe atomic energy.(after reassessing infrastructure and location), but evolving to fusion. , Clean coal to methane and other gas, and cleaner petroleum with more efficient engines and drive trains should compete in a market where access to refueling is diverse and robust. What are our politicians plans to address ample distribution?

 

The moment the market knows that the generation and distribution capacity will be met, the price of oil will plummet, and the race for market share will commence.stimulating vehicle, home, business, and farming. Water needs to be integral to the plan. Bio farming will evolve to sources ( Cellulosic, algae, etc.) and techniques that won't make fuel and food a choice or a reason to raise food prices. This is why  gaseous, liquid bio-fuel, electric, and yes fossil fuel derivatives should compete in an open marketplace.

 

Solutions are at hand, but right and left leaning politicians waffle except "drill baby drill", "renewables", "energy independence", all with no real commitment to begin changing. In this economic climate, politicians won't stand up for what's needed and how to  allow competition. Efficient and cleaner petrol engines are ok. After all, improving mileage by 50%+ with a cleaner fossil fuel mix reduces emissions. Plans are needed across the board to produce, provide a distribution strategy, and create economies of scale. When you look at the state of research, exciting solutions are coming from carbon nano-tubes, graphene, reuse of atomic energy waste, thorium, new ice's(  e.g. the Cog-nos two cycle engine), solar density, and much more. are ready for another race-to-the moon. Who has the guts to make the challenge and follow through? Transition will be swift, but in many cases will go through phases. The keyis the clarity of the commitment to S.E.D. (Supply exceeds  demand). 


How can we be sure this will lead to lower costs? If you don't build the infrastructure, you will

spend it on defending oil interests. The consuming nations have latent and real demand. You choose, committeemen to efficient scale volume, or guarantee of rising costs and the military commitment to sustain it. Meanwhile China builds $200 billion to $400 billion high speed rails, and we squeeze $8 billion to incrementally improve our railways. Our leaders must drive a commitment to lower costs and  the American competitive spirit will take over. 

 

What politician  will actually admit that the primary driver of "our interests" in the world is energy(oil), then the Israel Palestine question? Who can convince our suppliers that robust competition will reinvigorate the world economy?

 

The paralysis of the question has its roots in Middle Eastern "power" politics : Sunnis, Shiite, and Jewish .sects of a common culture, with the exception of "northern genetic histories of the Iran andTurkey bloodlines. The rest are dominated by Semitics.  All of this turmoil will culminate with change, it's just a question of the application of positive versus negative energy.


WE couch our interests in "freedom and democracy"  while really mean "oil".

The billion and one half Muslim population and the multiple billion population "Christian" world are at loggerheads over what? Sure, freedom and democracy, and land rights for an area equal to a small US state. What the people cry for is: lower cost food and water for farming, industry, personal survival, access to the massive energy and mineral wealth that is accumulated "at the top"; and peace. It seems like as oil prices persists at around $100.00 per barrel , the cirizens in supplier economies lost their patience, especially with food prices skyrocketing. In places like Libya, extraction costs of high quality "sweet crude" have been estimated at about $1.00 per barrel. Companies in the USCanada, (Europe?) have paid 
Gadhafi (Gaddafi? Khaddafy? Kaddafi? Qaddafi? Kadhafi ?) billions of dollars to have long term drilling contacts. Nigeria also has high quality crude. Now do you understand NATO "interests"?


What is perplexing is that many nations couch the conflicts in religious terms, which support many secular theories that religion is behind most wars with Kingdoms, and theocracies, at a minimum supporting an unacceptable status quo. Is war inevitable? Are the alliances once again  framed around mistrust and fundamentalist rhetoric when the real issues are water, land, energy, minerals, and security for same? Do I mean leaders and governments use religion to secure and hold power?

 

 A short historical segue..

Reference point Mesopotamia (cradle of Civilization (Tigris/ Euphrates), circa 3200 B.C.


Abraham, circa 1800-1600 B,C, had two sons Isaac (bloodline to Jesus (not withstanding "god's intervention") and Ishmael (bloodline to Mohammed). Ishmael was first borne, but through a surrogate, Hagar, at the request of Abraham's wife, Saria, who at the time was barren. Then she had Isaac. So even as Ishmael was first borne, he was not of Saria, so she convinced Abraham, that her line was the chosen line. Mohammed was a descendant of Abraham's firstborn, creating a political divide. Mohammed has no sons that survived childhood. His sudden death resulted in a schism of his legacy and lineage, between :his cousin and son in law (Shiite legacy, 10-15% of Muslims including Iran, 60% of Iraq, Bahrain, and Arab Emeritus, etc).; and his best friend's daughter and third wife, Aishi (Sunni beginnings up to Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel/Palestine and up to 85%+ of all Islam). Bin Laden was of Sunni upbringing, but positioned himself as neutral. Overlapping and preceding these bloodline conflicts, 1800 BCE to 2011 AD, we have the Persian, Babylonian, Ottoman empires, WWI, WWII, and promises of Israeli sovereignty in Palestine by England (1927) and the UN (1948). (note: leaving out many subordinations ofPersia
Mesopotamia  (Iraq+), and  the Jews, by Mongolians, Alexander the Great, the Crusades, colonialism, et al,). So to make it interesting, God/Nature bestowed upon this land the world's largest oil reserves, and limited water. You could blame this all on religion, but the cradle of civilization evolved through war and devastation by and to many humans. At the end of the day, it was commerce and resources (incl. water), and related security-, i.e. commodities, defended or acquired with religious fervor and military power, along with distrust of invaders, colonialists,

and nation builders from thousands of years of experience. Now with seventy percent (70) of Muslims under thirty(30) years old, the new generation gets to look at fundamentalism and change through the eyes of Facebook.  


 (4000 years of Mid Eastern religious history in one paragraph!).


So what's the problem?  The problem is who will insist that we choose innovation over conflict? Who will address the issue of the dollar backed oil, oil independence, and the strong versus weak dollar in an environment where debt reduction and avoiding hyper-inflation is an imperative?


2. The root of many of our domestic and international problems is lobby money, graft, power and control over politicians with money and military/patriot fear tactics, period. Multi-national corporations, associations and unions, governments themselves, business cartels, and military/industrial oligarchies are influence pedaling for political control and money. During the Obama-care debate, insurance lobbies were spending one (1) million dollars per day. Paying off leaders and manipulating the masses through advertising. is the status quo for many industries and politicians. Meanwhile, we squander trillions of dollars in military ventures trying to protect our "interests" Only Ron Paul, amongst politicians running for president, recognizes much of these expenditures as "entitlements". He's singled out because "in our hearts, we know he's right". There is common ground between the libertarians and the progressives, albeit Paul's roots in Barry Goldwater. From Al Gore, to Michael Moore, to Ron Paul, the bond is honesty. In the world of politics and lobby money, honesty is a very big deal! Who will lead us between short term money interest and influence, debt management, and monetary policy. Who will lift the chains of invisible handshakes and let the invisible hand drive innovation and growth, and  safeguard the balance of power and the dollar, and provide water and energy direction with an extreme  sense of urgency?


 3. Why were our leaders (USA examples) in 1890 (The Sherman Anti-trust act), 1914 (the Clayton Anti-trust act) and 1933 (Glass-Steagall) so much smarter than our leaders today? They learned through experience that the status quo of the day needed to be over-powered by the representatives of the people. The value of competition and the invisible hand is the freedom that must maintain supremacy over the lust for financial control and the invisible handshake between businesses and government. Combinations in restraint of trade have evolved into combinations in restraint of change. We cry against government control over business, yet businesses manipulate government to maintain the status quo. In a global economy, our political and military agenda, regardless if your governments are faux capitalists, faux communists, or pure dictatorships are driven by short term financial "interests" and access to commodity resources, not human "values" and competition. Yes, real competition is a freedom. We fly under the banner of freedom, when the expectation of North African and Middle Eastern people is cheaper food and access to water for farming, industry, and personal survival, as well as access to the wealth controlled by the "commodity barons", with the expectations of improved education, health, and safety...a better life. Yes, throw out the dictators, but fix the real problems, especially arrogance and denial, which crosses all political and geographic boundaries.

Speaking or arrogance and denial, we have the Financial Services industry.


 The repeal, in 1999, of the "Glass-Steagall act of 1933" led to the multi-trillion dollar financial collapse and beyond in 2008. 

 

Arguments for preserving of Glass-Steagall presented in 1987 (Wikipedia):


• Conflicts of interest characterize the granting of credit (that is to say, lending) and the use of credit (that is to say, investing) by the same entity, which led to pre-depression abuses that originally produced the act.
• Depository institutions possess enormous financial power, by virtue of their control of other people's money; its extent must be limited to ensure soundness and competition in the market for funds, whether loans or investments.
• Securities activities can be risky, leading to enormous losses. Such losses could threaten the integrity of deposits. In turn, the Government insures deposits and could be required to pay large sums if depository institutions were to collapse as the result of securities losses.
• Depository institutions are supposed to be managed to limit risk. Their managers thus may not be conditioned to operate prudently in more speculative securities businesses. An example is the crash of real estate investment trusts sponsored by bank holding companies (in the 1970s and 1980s). The collapse and consolidation of the S&L's in the 80's and 90's lead to the Bank complete takeovers in 2008-2009.(Eg, Countrywide, WAMU,etc), causing mega-concentration of real estate Mortgages. (Including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

 

One relevant point should be mentioned because it's not heard in the rhetoric over the financial debacle that led to Sept 2008. Subprime loans, in any large scale, are stupid. Any banker knows that economies and housing prices cycle (about every decade or so). Many banks where the banker's voices were strong, avoided that issue and saved their shareholders billions, but also had to pay a price when the market went bust. Their portfolio's were drawn down by the banks who dominated market share. Then why did the large Banks do something that was stupid? Even greedy bankers usually draw the line at stupid. 

The answer is two-fold. 

1. Glass- Steagall.....obviously Banks were influenced by their investment
counterparts by overriding Banking mentality with Investment mentality.
Derivatives, hedge funds, credit default swaps, baskets of junk sub-prime mortgages, all packaged and sold.

2. Lobby/money.......Power and influence led to loosening underwriting standards and practices. Bank auditors and regulators

in the past would never have allowed the standards of
the twenty fist century. At least not from 1933-1999. (Excception - S&L's where given broader reach in their holding companies-which led to their collapse. Why? Conflict of interest.)

It's interesting to note how the divergent points of view by people like Al Gore, Michael Moore, and Ron Paul are really on the same page. Gore and Moore outraged by the visible and invisible handshake, Paul perplexed about government binding the invisible hand. They're all right. 


Sounds disturbingly familiar? We sure were smart in 1933 and 1987, and stupid in 1999-2008 (2011?).

 

Cost: many trillions of dollars plus compound interest, millions of jobs, , and is now threatening our way of life. Blame management isn't the issue, it's manage change or change management: government, corporate, or otherwise. Of course, naysayers will point out " Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, and Merrill Lynch were Investment Banks; the American International Group AIG) is an insurance company. They conveniently leave out the fact that banking laws and regulations enabled banks to originate "bad paper" and package and sell it to investment banks and other security based organizations! That's why the banks had no qualms about selling mortgages to people who couldn't afford it...no accountability on the part of the bank. Somehow, common sense (from a Banking perspective) was subordinated.

 

We can talk about greed and underwriting standards. Unfortunately, greed is a constant.

In Banking, because of the obligation to protect consumer's deposits, regulation and oversight is appropriate. But when laws and regulators allow standards and practices that are stupid, like originating "bad paper" and packaging and selling it to unsuspecting investors, then hedging against it, it's beyond stupid and criminal, it's immoral, no matter what god you pray to, even the god of money! It's "close the gates of heaven immoral."

 

Yes we forgive you in the spirit of a common sense of morality,  now Go To Hell. (sayeth god).

 

4. The world's population centers (over 50 % of the world population and GDP)...China, India, USA, EU, Indonesia, Pakistan, Japan et al, all have the same commodity and resource problem . We can't seem to use our common and growing demand and market power to choose innovation over the status quo,  and synergy over mistrust. Why?... combinations in restraint of change. Even our emerging supplier nations Russia, Brazil, Africa, Norway, Canada, Mexico, and yes, the Middle East would benefit from a diverse economy and robust, diverse, clean Water and Energy strategy. In the Last 30 years, supporting Kings and promoting democracy have done nothing to increase our supply, lower our costs, or improve efficiency, three drivers of the invisible hand. The choice is:
 a) restore the invisible hand and laws that insure a level playing field, or
 

 b)creeping socialism.


The dilemma of  socialism is it doesn't really eliminate the oligarchy nature of the producers and the lawmakers-the invisible handshake. Government corruption has an indelible "presence" in history, regardless of ideological persuasion, so anti-trust, anti-lobby-money, anti-graft plus the balance of power/checks and balances are the cornerstone of our democratic success regardless of public or private ownership. The invisible hand is the check and balance of competition and self interest between the consumer and the producer. The law is expected to be the umbrella and referee of justice. The check and balance is out of whack.

 

What makes America better than many, government-wize, is clearly balance of power with  checks and balances. That's a big reason why Americans have a right to be proud of our founders and most of our amenders and lawmakers. But when you corrupt the process to the extent that it covers up lies (e.g. WMD's), enrich your supporters (e.g. privatization of the military under the guise of  efficiency), and corrupt the financial system (repeal of Glass-Steagal) in the name of free market capitalism and energy dependence, WE the people have the right to recourse and the duty to restore the system.

 

It's time for some changes, and we need the right mix of:: freeing up  innovation; guarding against 

combinations in restraint of change from business, government, and labor; and fiscal responsibility. 

and efficiency for those services that should be administered by government. 

 

Who will lead an effective administration of government and support innovation in the private sector and universities including public funded R&D, including the military? Think about it.

 

Who will break the education standoff between labor and management, between incentive and tenure, between political pressure and recourse for teachers, from status quo to exceptional ism?

5. 
 Hyper recession and near monetary collapse are moving us closer to the point where world trading partners don't want to rely on the dollar as the world standard of currency or to continue buying US treasury bills. This is compounded by Japan's tsunami caused debt on top over their highest debt to GDP ratio in the world. China's own inflation issues on top of balance of trade issues with the US further pressure the dollar. China and Japan are the top two buyers of US treasury notes. The weak dollar strategy (increase exports) versus the strong dollar strategy (attract capital) is the fundamental monetary issue of our times. The US: is involved in military actions in five (5) Middle Eastern countries- Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Pakistan. Looming issues exist with Iran, Israel/Palestine, the Sudan, the Congo, and elsewhere. Political instability persists in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, threatens Saudi Arabia, and empowers Iran.


The India-Pakistan mistrust, backed by nuclear arms as well as caught in fragile US-Pakistan relations, and our "anti-terrorist" goals in Afghanistan must be reconciled. Remember, however tenuous the trust bond is with the US and Pakistan, they are a country of almost 175,000,000 people, of which 2/3 are below the poverty level and half are uneducated. India, with a population of 1.1 billion, has over two thirds living on less than $2.00 per day. These problems persisted way before the US came along, although they have roots in mostly European colonialism.

 

The issue of "interest" is conflicted amongst our "allies", and behind the consternation is oil, as well as US domestic issues which are apparently subordinate to oil. That's because we measure interest and interests by the barrel. Cut spending or lower or raise taxes. It won't produce jobs if innovation is suppressed. Leadership must create the laws and climate for change, insisting on the power of the invisible hand over the invisible hand shake. Oil is not to blame.. Our politicians and the spirit of the American people are rendered impotent by lobby money

.

The shrinking global village — the convergence of economy, cultures, and technology is accelerating the curve of social change. The good news is we have the political system and social values to straighten ourselves out, albeit not without pain, but  only with real leadership. The definition of real leadership these days should be the ability to transcend lobby money without contra-lobby money. Now who fits that definition of leadership?


Meanwhile, all this financial stress is summarized in politico-speak as jobs. 
Unfortunately jobs are hostage to : Water and Energy, graft/lobby money, market control, denial of common interests with international trading partners, and near monetary collapse. Everyone wants to promote private sector jobs but won't address the key five issues. 


Across administrations over the last 35 years, we have prioritized status quo over change. If we invested in a WE (Water and Energy) strategy versus spending trillions of dollars on military tactics, we'd be on our way to a new economy, not to mentions the lives lost and ecology (which I just did). Instead, we argue about the Reagan years (the eighties) and the Clinton years (the nineties). We seem to ignore that companies in Silicon Valley, Massachusetts, New York, Washington, and Texas to name a few, had a lot more to do with re-inventing US's new economy. 

Noteworthy is that the internet was born out of government funding ( US universities, department of defense, and NASA, and the European CERN funding (WWW, HTML,) (as well as many parallel innovations ) and exploited (in a good way) by the private sector. Private sector competition and government can promote progress with innovative leadership(incl Al Gore). Not a government bought and controlled by "interests", because it was beyond  the CERN and other scientists comprehension how a 
common internet language, HTML, (Hyper Text Markup Language) could unleash the invisible hand into a virtual dynamic technology community, marketplace, and society. The role of government as an investor and checkpoint in major R& D 

is a road paved with innovation and success: the military; NASA; and University -government partnerships.


However, we also: built the internet bubble; the housing bubble; passed laws and regulations that ignored lessons and laws of the past; survived 9/11; and pursued wars in the last three decades, largely against those we funded, militarily, to begin with: Hussein (IRAQ); Bin Laden (Afghanistan); and by imposing  the Shah in Iran...all in pursuit of oil and "interests". It's like President Johnson's "guns and butter" of the sixties dampening the seventies. Time after time, extreme lack of hindsight and denial rule the day. Whether you agree with Ron Paul's world view or not, you have to admit trillions have been spent, millions died, proving his point about interference in the Middle East. However, the Middle East and North Africa are boiling over with cries for freedom and relief in the cost of commodities, particularly agriculture and meat.

 

My point is that fuel has become a four letter word. 


We should pay homage to fossil fuel's incredible positive influence on progress as well more effective war machines. But so was taming the horse. Now the horsepower is out of the barn

looking for .food (energy).


So to try to compensate for all the oil driven strategies since OPEC was used as a political weapon (1973 oil embargo), and the military strategies, even before 9/11/2001....resulting in trillions of dollars of expense;  the Federal Reserve (the FED) used cheap money strategies (the cheap dollar lowered the cost of our goods overseas) ,while the Banks increased business and consumer access to debt, oil prices pressurized inflation, and businesses pursued international cheap labor to maintain costs and open markets. Remember, in August, 2008, oil peaked at $140 + per barrel, and interest rates were rising since 2006. (Rising oil prices + global supply/demand imbalance + "guns and butter" government spending+ technology outsourcing and mostly free trade agreements+  rising interest rates + expansion of government and consumer debt + poorly underwritten variable rate loans — Glass Steagle) = 2008-2011.  Our financial "World Equation."

 

Note that the entire India call center, technology, and back office outsourcing model was built on the US technology, communications, and Internet technologies from 1980's-2001. It shrunk the global village by many-fold. India could leverage it because of their large English speaking community caused by British colonialism. The dynamics of history, free trade, and democracy, fueled by technology are exciting and ugly, but  there's no turning back.

Technologies and communications have shrunk the global village. Outsourcing and revolutions in Egypt are both fueled by technology. There is only one path out: innovation and unleashing the power of humanity to change, positively. Adaptation is the strongest human attribute, once denial is overcome.Denial + adaptation = lackluster innovation. Belief in opportunity + adaptation + reinstatement of checks and balances (anti-trust, etc.) =  reinvigorating innovation.

You could ask, why the Internet environment does seems to be robust with competition and innovation while the Water and Energy and environmental progress seems lethargic and for many, defined by war and terrorism? One answer is that the opportunity and possibilities in micro and particle science and technology are almost beyond limits, at least in terms like chip density doubling every two years. But remember that market leaders such as Microsoft , Google , Intel are constantly challenged on anti-trust levels. The temptation to control markets is almost irresistible.

 

Obviously social and government check and balance are in demand more than ever.

Mobile fuels transitioned from horseback to steam engines, wood to coal, and coal to petroleum, gas, and electricity, with disruptive change, but comparatively less violence. Yet the Sherman and Clayton anti-trust acts were driven by railroad and petroleum monopoly issues. In 1890-1914, the world population was 1.4-1.6 billion people. Today, the world has almost seven (7) billion, growing to nine (9)+ billion by 2050. The dollars are measured in trillions and the dependence on Energy has reached "elixir of society" level, It's intuitive that water is the "elixir of life.". No water, no life. Likewise, no energy, no society and no progress. High priced energy means slow progress.

Oil companies advertise to be energy companies. Yet we know that energy demand will double and triple. We know we've spent trillions on defending our oil interests. We know that our economy, innovation, and ecology need to be fueled. Don't we know that if we don't lead the path to low cost clean energy, countries like China will? WE're struggling while they are growing by selling products and labor to us. Yes, we know we are better off per capita,

but that's a huge incentive to them. The only thing that can restore our progress is innovation, motivation, and a peaceful world market and society.


The dynamic we're not used to is in a society: where one (1) percent (one out of one hundred)  are unhappy, thats seventy million people; while the reality is  45 % are in poverty, that's over three billion. Add technology and telecommunications and you get allot of cognitive dissonance and social chaos.

 

The time to recognize that the transportation and home/business fuel status quo must change? Now!

The convergence of culture with economic globalization and poor monetary strategies led to what Stephen Hawking questioned to Yahoo!Answers in
the summer of 2006, "In a world that is in chaos politically, socially, and environmentally, how can the human race sustain the next 100 years?" Had he
asked the question in late 2008, he could have added "economically" to his list, and nailed it.

The answer is get our leaders to address issues 1-5 as summarized. Our
monetary, political, social, and environmental needs demand it. So after
we brag: the USA is the shining light on the hill, the greatest nation on
the earth, and not just a peer to other nations, please have some humility and
strength to restore what our leaders knew in 1776, 1789, 1890, 1914, and 1933. After all, Ronald Reagan, in 1990, knew that trying to control the destiny of the Middle East was a troubled exercise that needed to be rethought.(Often referred to by Ron Paul...and check my 4000 year history seque above). Imagine if we spent our money helping the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Sahara Africa build desalination and energy  facilities to enrich farmland and industrialization with innovative US made technologies. The choice of war and terror is pathetic, moving to disgraceful, and sometimes illegal by domestic or international law..with plenty of guilt to be spread amongst our "family" of nations. Yes we all hate terrorists and they're the definition of pathetic and evil. but what are we going to do that's positive.

Yes, stick with our allies, help nations negotiate peace, but for god sake, let's make the compatibility of our interests and values be the beacon for the present and the future. Borrowing money from China to prop up Egyptian dictators doesn't seem to have turned out the way we planned, especially when we are often blamed for propping up these regimes. Defenders say "look how relatively quiet the Israel/Egypt relationship has been." At least the Egyptians used Face book to help the revolutionaries coordinate their efforts, led by a Google executive. And they paid for there own cell phones. That's the leadership we need, not the billions of aid spent on military defense to maintain the status quo. And the Egyptians, for the moment, and as an example, didn't blame us. How refreshing. How long is this good will going to last? 

 

Now where does President Obama stand in the middle of all this?  He is definitely here at a point of history that will mark his place in history.. He, along with both parties over at least the last 30 years, have things to reconcile. 

 

"Yes, change...you too, Mr. President. You have certain history that could be pivotal at this point in time, or reasons everyone could blame you.  Should you be blamed for not being arrogant in your diplomacy with the Middle East,ChinaRussia, et al? Is diplomacy and empathy confused as weakness? These issues need to be aired for 2012.

 

 Even though  I hate the haters (oxymoron?), I think you're in trouble. 

 

Why did you call it Stimulus when, 2/3's or more of the $700 + billion was rescue or sustaining workers and businesses in real trouble? That doesn't expand opportunity, it forstalls contraction. People were expecting expansion, but got mostly short term maintenance.

 

You seemed trapped by the very points I make in this paper, hoping demographics will sustain you!. They won't, by themselves. President George H. W. Bush ,senior, thought Desert Storm would sustain him. He became a one-term President. Ah hindsight!"


The point is the five issues won't resolve themselves till someone leads us to change. Can the public understand this? Why not!

 

The death of Bin Laden closed a chapter on terrorism. Who will write the book on the end (reduction) of terrorism, the restoration of the American dollar, and the growth of the world economy, led by our beacon of hope and fiscally responsible innovation and economic growth?

 

We need innovation and a playing field that frees the invisible had and regulates market manipulators. Yes, and our greatest minds and leadership can set directions that exhibit strength, compassion, and wisdom. Can't they?

At the time of WWII, there were about two and one half billion people in the world. Now there are almost seven billion, growing to over nine billion by 2050. We argue about global warming (the politically correct word is climate change ), where the near term threat is global warring. In 1914, there were about 1.6 billion people on earth and WWI killed 15 million people, with a follow-on pandemic killing at least 20,000,000. In 1941, there was about 2.3 billion on earth, and the WWII death toll was about 50 million. There are 2.8 times more people on the earth, than in 1941. Using WWI-WWII, that extrapolates to 106.6 million potential deaths. Now compare the world's killing power to the WWII and WWI killing power.  Now add how many people who could extend their life by adding just 10 years to the developing, emerging, and developed world's lifespan. (1B new consumers and retirees.). Now should we just "Darwin" it or think of all those potential consumers? That's a lot of smiles and a lot of votes.

 

Now, let's rethink our World Equation. Please? Please!

 

Are we in denial? Let's see, North Africa, the Middle East, the "Istans" incl Pakistan-India,Russia/Georgia/Ukraine, Japan/China, the USA/EU NATO alliance, Greece, Spain, the dollar, the treasury bill, the debt, etc. That's a slippery slope greased by oil and limited fresh water. 

It seems like WE're about one major terror act,, a monetary crises with the dollar and t-billl igniting hyper-inflation, and a few more religious theocracies away from attempted Jihad, near Armageddon in the Mediterranean, or some lesser definition of devastation.! Hmmmm!

 

The point is Water, War, Energy, Economics,, Ecology and ultimately terrorism are all surrounded by the same issues. No, I didn't say that America is responsible and accountable for all the human foibles that have surrounded the Middle East and Africa since the cradle of civilization sprouted about 4000-3,000 BC. We are, however,  faced with three realities:

 

1. WE and the world need accessible, clean, and low cost Water and Energy supply. We need it now and to support a doubling, then tripling of demand. WE need choice and adaptable gas, clean liquid, and electric to more efficient engines and motors. Our leaders need to take a stand, not in 2020, now!


2. This won't happen unless our leaders take the needs of their citizens over  the lobby and money interests that are corrupting America's and the world marketplace.  

 

 

3. The globalization of the world economy over the last 50 years have given rise to cartels and oligarchy combinations that are standing in front of innovation and progress and innovation. The defenders cry out "Free markets" and  "Supply and Demand" while they control supply which leads to price.


Our number one hindrance is common to us and our politicians...denial! And it seems that Al Gore's challenges won't be met unless "all of the above" are addressed, any way.  If you hate Al Gore's facts or motivations, we still have to address the issues. After spending trillions and trillions to defend oil security, now we feel like we can't afford to fix the problem? Interestingly, the solutions 
 address climate change too! Don't believe in climate change? Maybe it's god's or nature's way of feeling uncomfortable, climate chaos, climate instability..  Imagine God/Nature and Stephen Hawking on the same page. Michael Moore and Ron Paul on the same page?...sometimes for different reasons. The global village is shrinking and the economies of the industrial nations are in a quandary. 


A quandry about what?  ChinaIndiaBrazilRussia, et al are emerging and they have nowhere to go but up.  The youth in the Middle East and their parents are crying freedom, but they want lower cost food and a piece of the pie created by energy and industrial wealth, as well as billions in USaid, military and otherwise.. Seventy percent of the Muslim world is under thirty years old. At this point, they're not talking about hate, they're talking about want and need. WE need to be part of that conversation, but as a respectful 
adviser and leader by example. The challenge is the potential conflict between being a supporter of their cause and energy independence. The answer is with emerging economies, there is plenty of room for diversity, in population and energy.. 

 

Why should we do anything?...Because we're supposed to learn from hindsight. And it's right. If we think we can retreat into a North American shell,  now that we've unleashed our technology, and that other countries can't replicate our ideas, and the paradigm of society hasn't changed, think again. 

 

Now I didn't say lay down our arms, or if we're nice, bad people will just get better.

Once more, I didn't say lay down our arms, or if we're nice, bad people will get better.

 

What I did say,  is tell our politicians that if they don't deal with the real issues, we're going to get very mad at them at the polling both and the ballot is stronger than the dollar. But it won't help unless we really insist that the real problems are  addressed. Democracy can solve our problems, but it must include the freedom to compete, real checks and balances, and leadership and consensus to restore our faith through action in real change, domestically and internationally. WE''ve stood together before, we just have to see the forest for the trees. Yes the forest is chaotic, but these are the very conditions that bring out the best in us. It's a bold world where students in Egypt can help throw out a leader. But it's a bolder world where we can face our own issues and do something about it 

The ballot represents everything our country and forefathers stood for. The currency of the vote is stronger than the dollar, although politicians claim it cost billions to get our vote.. Really? Why? Understand that and we're on the road to innovation and progress. And yes take the debt ceiling out of the political agenda, while keeping the spendin and tax issues in play. Or would you rather have hyperinflation, depression, and loss of world leadership to prove a point?  

 

Charlie Pedersen............................ we2infinity.com

6/23/2011